This paper on "Mammogram Math" by Prof. John Alan Paulos of Temple's Math Dept is the first of several longer term assignments-a "reaction paper" to an article published by Prof. Paulos in the NY Times Magazine, 12/13/09.
You might remember the controversy over the recommendations of an NIH (National Institutes of Health) committee that screening mammograms should be cut back for women over age 50 and, with some exceptions (notably for women with one or more high risk factors for breast cancer), should be eliminated for the general population of women in their 40's. Prof. Paulos' article tries to explain the math behind the recommendation.
This assignment asks you to read his article.
1) React to the question "Does this article help you understand how and why the recommendations were made?"
2) Dr. Paulos picked some easy to understand numbers (but numbers not representative of actual mammography) for the efficiency and other statistics about mammography. Repeat his analysis using the actual efficiency, rate of false positives and false negatives and a couple of other necessary statistics that can be found in the Wikipedia article on mammograms or, if you want you can get the information from the original report available at nih.gov. I want you to take the actual numbers from this Wiki article and repeat the calculations using accurate numbers that Dr. Paulos outlines in his article and then react to the recommendations of the NIH group based on your analysis of the actual data Do you believe that their recommendations make sense or should the original mammography schedule be adhered to? BACK UP YOUR REACTION WITH YOUR CALCULATIONS.
The only math needed is typical elementary school decimal arithmetic and some understanding of percents. The length of the paper is up to you, although anything over 2 pages is likely too long and then 1 too short. Make you arguments succinctly.
Attachment:- Mammogram Math - NYTimes.com.pdf.pdf