The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company based its quarterly production by forecasting how many tons of fertilizer will be sold. The company has gathered the data from the past 4 quarters from its sales record and has been using the Exponential Smoothing with a(small alpha)= 0.2 to produce the forecast.
Quarter Actual Sale (tons) Forecast
1 800 800
2 750 800
3 820 790
4 770 796
5 ---- ?
1. What is the sales forecast for the 5th quarter?
2. Calculate the MAD using only the 2nd to the 4th quarter data?
3. Calculate the MAPD using only the 2nd to 4th quarter data?
4. Calculate the BIAS using only the 2nd to 4th quarter data?