The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey of its members to measure the percent who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months. For the week ending November 7, 2012 the survey results showed 38.5% bullish, 21.6% neutral, and 39.9% bearish (AAII website, November 12, 2012). Assume these results are based on a sample of 300 AAII members.
a. Over the long-term, the proportion of bullish AAII members is .39. Conduct a hypothesis test at the 5% level of significance to see if the current sample results show that bullish sentiment differs from its long-term average of .39. What are your findings?
H0: p Selectgreater than or equal to .39greater than .39less than or equal to .39less than .39equal to .39not equal to .39Item 1
Ha: p Selectgreater than or equal to .39greater than .39less than or equal to .39less than .39equal to .39not equal to .39Item 2
p-value = (to 4 decimals)