Banana prices. The price of bananas fluctuates on the world market. Here are the prices ($/tonne) for the years 2000-2004. (Source: Holy See Country Review, 2008).
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2000
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2001
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2002
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2003
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2004
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422.27
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584.70
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527.61
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375.19
|
524.84
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a) Find a 3-year moving average prediction for the price in 2005.
b) Find a prediction for 2005 with an exponential smoothing model with a = 0.4.
c) The actual price of bananas in 2005 was 577 $/tonne (you can find current prices at www.imf.org/external/np/ res/commod/table3.pdf.) Compute the absolute percentage error for each prediction.