Mean of daily percentage changes of the exchange rates:0.009755%
Standard deviation: 0.782254
(1) Suppose today's exchange rate is KRW 1166.35/USD. Given the two parameter estimates above, what is the probability for the exchange rate to reach 1200 or higher tomorrow?
(2) Let's repeat the exercise for a longer horizon. Assume that today's exchange rate is still KRW 1166.35/USD. What is the probability for the exchange rate to reach 1200 or higher five days later? Assume that exchange rate changes are independently and identically distributed over time.
(3) Under a normal distribution, what is the probability for a random variable to occur outside five standard deviations? ( P( |Z|>=5 ) =? )
(4) Suppose that you are holding $1 millions for five days. What is your 5% VaR (value-at-risk) in KRW? Estimate the VaR assuming that exchange rate percentage changes are normally distributed.