Suppose that basketball players are, during any given game, in one of three states: Hot (they make 75% of their shots), Normal (they make 50% of their shots), or Cold (they make only 25% of their shots). Suppose Steph Curry is Hot. What is the probability that he will make 3 baskets in a row? What if he is Normal? Cold? If you have no idea what state he’ll be in before the game (that is, each state is equally likely), what would you believe about the likelihood that he is Hot after he makes his first 3 baskets in a row?