Statistical sampling techniques and methodologies are used in many facets of its mission by the U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) and is among the most famous users of sampling methodologies. Not only is the USCB charged with the constitutional responsibility of counting our numbers every ten years, they are also charged with projecting our numbers into the future. Although sampling techniques are not constitutionally allowed for a current census, the USCB is unquestionably one of the biggest users of valid sampling techniques to perform its additional functions. Population projections shown on the USCB web site provides significant information regarding our future population.
Navigate to the USCB's website (https://www.census.gov/) and locate the report Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, by Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan. Answer the following questions from the information shown in this report:
1.The authors of the paper make assumptions about the U.S. population on three dimensions. What are the three dimensions? (Hint: The authors refer to these dimensions as "components of change.")
2.What is the expected population of the U.S. in 2050 given the new series (i.e., based on 1998 data) based on the lowest series? The middle series? And the highest series?
3.What do the lowest, middle, and highest series represent?
4.Why do you think that it is not constitutional to use sampling techniques to count our current census? If we trust sampling in an audit population, wouldn't the math hold up for the census itself?