I - Module 1 - Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment: Short written assessments
Learning Outcomes
1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non-accounting backgrounds.
Instructions:
You are required to apply your knowledge and draw links between the scenario and the learning resources. In your answers, reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the module. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts have been reviewed and that you can apply these concepts to the problems posted.
The board is interested in a comparison analysis of a third country as potential market for our Schmeckt Gut products. You are expected to provide this analysis for a country of your choice. Please find below detailed expectations of the board:
1. Download the data of the World Development Indicators from the World Bank.
2. Using this database, select a country of your choice and compare the country's:
a. GDP growth rate (%)
b. Inflation rate (%)
c. GDP per Capita (PPP $)
with those of Industria and the Federated Islands (data provided in the Module content).
Provide a table with the data and develop graphs using applicable EXCEL tools.
3. For the same country, use the World Bank Doing Business Indicators and compare the Indicators for the section 'Paying Taxes' with that of Industria and the Federated Islands. Provide a table and applicable graphs using EXCEL tools.
4. Based on your analysis, make recommendations to the board, which market the Schmeckt Gut company should target first.
II - Module 3 - Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment
Learning Outcomes
1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non-accounting backgrounds.
Instructions:
You are required to apply your knowledge and draw links between the scenario and the learning resources. In your answers, reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the module. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts have been reviewed and that you can apply these concepts to the problems posted.
Assignment
The daily sales figures and prices for our Schmeckt Gut Energy Bars sold in the countries of Nockaragua, Macronesia and Industria are provided with the attached EXCEL file.
The board of directors of Schmeckt Gut is interested in investigating this data in more detail.
The board would like you to answer the following questions by using statistical methods and concepts that have been addressed in the modules.
a) What is the expected sale (number of energy bars sold) and what is the expected revenue on any given day in each of the three countries?
b) Based on the data, what is the probability that Schmeckt Gut:
(i) Sells at least the expected number of energy bars?
(ii) Reaches at least the expected revenue?
c) What are the average number of energy bars sold and revenues achieved for each week day (Monday's, Tuesday's, ... Saturday's and Sunday's) in each country?
(i) Create probability distributions of the average number of sales and the average revenues achieved over any given week (Monday to Sunday)?
(ii) Present your distributions for each country in graphs.
(iii) Given the probability distributions for every day of the week (Monday to Sunday), what are the expected sales and what are the expected revenues for each day of the week (Monday to Sunday) for each country?
(iv) On which day are we experiencing, on average, the highest sales (number of energy bars sold) and on which day the lowest sales?
(v) On which day are we experiencing, on average, the highest revenue and on which day the lowest revenue?
(vi) What is the expected number of energy bars sold on these specific days?
What is the expected revenue on these specific days? Knowing the actual data, what is the probability that we meet the expected sales and revenues on these days?
d) With the knowledge of the above, advise the board in which country we should invest in marketing our Energy Bars. Explain your rational.
III - Module 4 - Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment
Learning Outcomes
1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non- accounting backgrounds.
Assignment
The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut recently received the results of a customer satisfaction survey conducted in the Federated Islands from the Schmeckt Gut Marketing Department. The results of the survey are presented in Table 1; see excel file. Based on these results, the Board of Directors raised concerns about the quality of our Schmeckt Gut Energy Bars and instructed the Schmeckt Gut Research Department to investigate this further.
Following these instructions, the Research Department of Schmeckt Gut Energy Bars conducted two independent random tests at our production facilities in 5 districts in the Federated Islands. The tests investigated the actual weight of the Energy Bars and recoded the results which are presented in Table 2 of the excel file. Please note that the weight listed on the Schmeckt Gut Energy Bars is listed as 47gramms and should not deviate from this too much.
Your task:
The Board would like you to do a detailed analysis of these results (Tables 1 and 2) and to provide a list of recommendations. In your analysis you are required to apply selected tools and concepts of your own choosing that have been discussed in the subject so far. The Board is looking forward to your report as the guide for decision making. Please keep in mind that any changes to production processes or marketing involves costs to Schmeckt Gut which means that your recommendations need to do both, clearly explain your rational behind the recommendations while taking possible costs involved into account.
IV - Statistics for Financial Decisions Module Assessment
Learning Outcomes -
1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non- accounting backgrounds.
Assignment
Introduction:
The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut would like to forecast sales figures for the Federated Islands for this year (2016) based on a data set that has collected information over the past 25 years.
The dataset which is provided in the EXCEL file is for the Federated Islands and includes other variables.
Assume that the development of the sales of Energy Bars (in US$) in a country is highly dependent on:
- The development of the income of that country approximated by GDP data in US$
- The development of prices approximated by an average price index (in %)
- The population development (15-65 years of age)
- Satisfaction of customers with the product which is approximated with a survey score - this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied)
- The advertisement of energy bars - number of average advertisements, and
- The Number of stores where the energy bars can be purchased.
If we would rewrite this relationship with a regression:
Salest = α0 + α1GDPt + α2PriceIndext + α3Populationt +α4Satisfactiont + α5Advertisementt + α6Storest + εt
We are now interested to estimate what a 1% change in these figures would have on the development of the sales.
A common approach in econometric analysis is to apply the natural logs (ln). Doing so will return coefficients that estimate a percent change in your dependent variable for a unit change in your independent variable. For example, a coefficient of 0.25 for the GDP variable implies that a 1% change in GDP will change sales by 0.25%.
The model in log-linear form is the presented as follows:
lnSalest = α0 + α1lnGDPt + α2lnPriceIndext + α3lnPopulationt +α4lnSatisfactiont + α5lnAdvertisementt + α6lnStorest + εt
In EXCEL, for a transformation of data into natural logs, simply apply '=ln(data)'.
Your tasks:
(a) Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the EXCEL file.
(b) Conduct a correlation analysis between the sales results, and:
(i) Satisfaction scores
(ii) Number of advertisement
(iii) Number of stores
(c) Run a time series regression of the above equation (2) and interpret the results.
(d) Assuming that for 2016 we are provided with the following forecast estimates:
- GDP to grow by 2.5%
- Prices to be at 2%
- Population to grow by 0.5%
- A satisfaction score of 7.5
- Number of advertisements: 18
- Number of stores: 12
What would be the approximate sales for 2016 based on the economic analysis?
(e) Can you think of alternative forecasting techniques you could apply? Compare your results from (d) with your alternative forecasting approaches.
V - Statistics for Financial Decisions
Learning Outcomes
1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non- accounting backgrounds.
Assessment 2: Presentation
Context:
The presentation asks students to present their preliminary results of their final report (Assessment No. 3) in which they are to apply their knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Modules in a comprehensive work. The presentation allows students to present their preliminary findings while reflecting back on their previous learning performances and outcomes, and to make use of previous submissions and feedback provided.
Instructions:
You are expected to present your preliminary findings of your final report (Assessment no. 3). You are expected to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (Assessment no.1) in your presentation of your preliminary findings to your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. Please keep in mind that the final report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.
Report and presentation
As discussed above, your final two assessments are inter-linked:
- Assessment 3 requires you to write a report.
- For Assessment 2 you are to present the preliminary findings of your report (Assessment 3).
The presentation (Assessment 2) provides you with an opportunity to receive feedback from the learning facilitator which you are then to implement and address in your final report.
Introduction:
1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020
2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020
Data set:
The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include:
- Sales figures in US$ (not available for Sweden)
- GDP data in US$
- Average Price Index (in %)
- Population (15-65 years of age)
- Survey score - this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied)
- Number of average advertisements
- Number of stores
All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures.
Detailed tasks
1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020
Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis)
Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and:
(i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results
Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020.
For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments.
For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?
2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020
Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection.
Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country's characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market.
Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.
See pg 40 of the 'IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION' report for Sweden for the data.
3. Other suggestions
- Based on your analysis in parts 1 and 2, are there any other suggestions you have for the Board on how Schmeckt Gut can boost sales in the countries?
Your presentation:
- Create a presentation (for example with PowerPoint) and turn your presentation into a video.
https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-a-video-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 for details should you decide to use PowerPoint
You can also use any other suitable programs
Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making
Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques.
What do these results imply?
What are your main recommendations?
Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes
Assessment 3: Report
Context:
The report asks students to apply their knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Modules in a comprehensive work. The report allows students to reflect back on their previous learning performances and outcomes, and to make use of previous submissions.
Instructions:
You are expected to submit a report that requires you to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (assessment no.1) and feedback provided to your presentation (assessment no. 2) in your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. The report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.
Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar