Question: Refer to Problem. Use a spreadsheet to extend the number of trials to 500. Compute E(AW) and plot the cumulative average AW. Are 500 trials enough to reach steady state?
Problem: A company that manufactures automobile parts is weighing the possibility of investing in an FMC (Flexible Manufacturing Cell). This is a separate investment and not a replacement of the existing facility. Management desires a good estimate of the distribution characteristics for the AW. There are three random variables; i.e., they have uncertainties in their values. An economic analyst is hired to estimate the desired parameter, AW. He concludes that the scenario presented to him is suitable for Monte Carlo simulation (method of statistical trials) because there are uncertainties in three variables and the direct analytical approach is virtually impossible. The company has done a preliminary economic study of the situation and provided the analyst with the following estimates:
All the elements subject to variation vary independently. Use Monte Carlo simulation to generate 10 AW outcomes for the proposed FMC. What is the standard deviation of the outcomes?