Assignment:
The Project Report is your main forecast report. It is due at the latest by Tuesday May 2 (in class). You report will include the following
• A description of the data series, historical data, and time-series problems of the series
• A description of your forecasting method
• Presentation of your forecasting model and parameter estimates
• Forecasts of the series for the following year. If your series is monthly, this consists of 12 forecasts. If your series is quarterly, this consists of 4 forecasts.
• Both point forecasts and interval forecasts(50% and 80%)
• You should write your report as a paper. Do not include STATA do files or direct printout. You should include appropriate regression results, but write them in the format for a paper. Describe the models you considered, and why you selected them. Justify your choices.
Describe how you selected your model. Present your best model estimates.
• There is not a specific length requirement.
1. Due in 6 hours from now.
2. https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/460/ use this link to check the lecture slides. Use the model form the lecture slides, no other model.
3.Forecast personal income and outlays.
4.need to give me the STATA do file.
5. need a introduction and conclusion.
6. all of the graphs and table should on the bottom of the paper. (Appendix)
7. five pages of the content.
all of the information you need:
personal outlays https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A068RC1
Personal Income https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI
PCE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
Personal income and outlays https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/110?t=outlays&rt=outlays&ob=pv&od=desc
BEA https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2017/pi0117.htm