Detailed Question: Data:
This assignment involves time series analysis of stock prices. Each person must choose a/the stock from one of the companies identified in your discussion board in this module. One source of the data is Yahoo Finance.
The data should be for the period of January 1 to July 7 of the previous year.
Analysis:
Use your data and a spreadsheet program to hindcast and forecast the value for your variable. You should apply each of the following techniques:
Linear regression
Simple 15-period moving average
Simple 30-period moving average
Exponential smoothing with a good alpha value (you have to find it)
Produce a chart for the data set, along with each forecast and each hindcast (or, if you choose, a series of charts with the raw data and forecast)
Comment on the strength of each approach in terms of MAD
Which model and forecast do you think is best, and why?
Why is your alpha good?
Is there a linear trend in the set of data?
Wiktionary: Hindcast
n. A method of testing a mathematical model by using data from a past event.
Requirements
In order to successfully complete this assignment, you must:
Make few or no grammatical, spelling, or syntactical errors.
Show any or all of the following:
Critical thinking
Original thinking
Researched examples
Critical/original thinking: Demonstrate new approaches and/or ability to "push back" rather than simply reproducing another's thoughts
Use direct quotations sparingly and judiciously
Properly identify any sources and integrate into own thoughts and ideas
Provide a straightforward, easy-to-follow arrangement with appropriate formatting:
Comply with APA format
Answers clearly marked and named within assignment file(s)
Create a Word document and name it using the following convention: "YourName-M1-assignment"
On the Word document, answer the prompts listed above in about 1-2 pages of text, plus charts and tables