Assignment task:
My classmate posted the following articles. What should I respond to him
Nuclear proliferation presents a significant global security challenge, with key strategies for addressing it including diplomatic negotiations, nonproliferation treaties, and economic sanctions. Each approach offers strengths and also faces weaknesses. Understanding these strategies' pros and cons is essential for tackling nuclear proliferation. Although the Cold War has ended, nuclear proliferation remains a hot geopolitical topic in foreign policy due to the incredibly sensitive nature surrounding nuclear power. State actors retain their desire for nuclear power and armaments and their actions and motives can be hard to ascertain.
In particular, Iran is one state that has been negotiating with the West in terms of nuclear armament, power, how much and in what capacity they can retain it. Waltz (2012) addresses several points in his argument supporting Iranian nuclear weapons. He says that the lack of a nuclear Iran is the very reason there is instability in the Middle East, especially regarding Israeli armaments. The actions (such as sanctions, strikes against Syrian and Iraqi nuclear programs) that have the intent of safeguarding against rogue nuclear nations is the motivation for Iranian nuclear weapons. Waltz also addresses common fears that the public has about Iran obtaining nuclear power. Notably, once nuclear weapons are obtained, the same notion of Mutually Assured Destruction would likely take place. He says that the leaders in Iran are not necessarily irrational, but they are still incentivized to steward the survival of the regime. Acting aggressively or actually using the nukes would almost certainly end in their destruction. Although he does briefly address the idea that the weapons could be handed off to terrorists and non-state actors, he claims that US and Western intelligence agencies would have an easy time tracking the transition of material and resources for weapons. His article is dated, at 13 years old at this point, so he may feel differently when looking at the vast sponsorship of terrorist organizations that Iran now takes part in. A hand-off to terrorists would be a major concern.
Waltz (2012) made one outcome prediction, in that Iran would maintain a "break-out" capability. It seems that this prediction turned out to be accurate, as Iran now maintains the resources and infrastructure that is considered a break-out capability (Mills, 2024). Meaning that Iran has done everything for a nuclear arsenal except weaponized their uranium. Estimates say they have the infrastructure to turn their vast amounts of "peaceful" uranium into weapons-grade material in as little as a few weeks. Additionally, they often refuse to let international organizations and regulatory committees inspect or investigate the current status of their nuclear program, leaving much to the imagination.
Cirincione (2022) addresses the insurmountable issue of nuclear policy reform here in the United States. He says the politics surrounding nuclear reform is largely determined by the drive for global power, the desire for success in domestic politics, and the money to be made by the "nuclear-industrial complex." Naturally, the explosion of nuclear power in WWII and the subsequent arms race has created this framework in foreign policy that identifies nuclear states as the most powerful on the world stage. The norm or notion is one of the primary factors for not only maintaining our nuclear arsenal, but expanding upon it, at the cost of billions and billions of dollars. Regarding domestic politics, the policy for nuclear posture is largely a bottom up process, where the individual (the President) who is supposed to have unilateral authority is being told how and where the nuclear program should go. Fighting against the nuclear regime is a risk to one's political successes and does not leave many options open. Finally, Cirincione says that the potential for profits for companies who design and produce these weapons is a huge driving factor. This norm is common, especially when looking at the military industrial complex as whole. Need Assignment Help?