Probability of observing a sample proportion


On February 8, 2002, the Gallup Organization released results of poll regarding American attitudes toward 19th Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City, Utah. The poll results were based upon telephone interviews with randomly chosen national sample of 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 4-6, 2002.

(a) Assume we wish to employ the poll's results to justify claim that more than 30 percent of Americans (18 years or older) say that figure skating is their favorite Winter Olympic event. The poll actually found that the 32 percent of respondents reported that figure out skating was their favorite event. If, for the sake of argument, we suppose that 30 percent of Americans (18 years or older) say figure skating is the favorite event (that is, p = .3), compute the probability of observing a sample proportion of .32 or more; that is calculate P(p ? .32).

(b) Based on the probability you computed in part a, would you conclude that more than 30 percent of Americans (18 years or older) say that figure skating is their favorite Winter Olympic event?

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Basic Statistics: Probability of observing a sample proportion
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