Probability and decision trees


Assignment:

Q1.  A mail order company tracks the number of returns it receives each day.  Information for the last 50 days shows

Number of returns    Number of days
0 - 99                                6
100 - 199                         20
200 - 299                         15
300 or more                       9

a.    How many sample points are there?
b.    List and assign probabilities to sample points.
c.    What procedure was used to assign these probabilities?

Q2. There are two more assignments in a class before its end, and if you get an A on at least one of them, you will get an A for the semester.  Your subjective assessment of your performance is

Event                              Probability
A on paper and A on exam    .25
A on paper only                     .10
A on exam only                      .30
A on neither                           .35

a.    What is the probability of getting an A on the paper?
b.    What is the probability of getting an A on the exam?
c.    What is the probability of getting an A in the course?
   
Q3. Fold back this decision tree.  Clearly state the decision strategy you determine.

167_Decision tree.JPG

Provide complete and step by step solution for the question and show calculations and use formulas.

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Basic Statistics: Probability and decision trees
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