Assignment:
1. Apply the appropriate exponential smoothing model to create fit estimates of the monthly data below. Tell me why you selected the exponential smoothing model type.
2. Adjust the model coefficient(s) to obtain the best estimates and calculate the residuals.
3. Perform residual analysis using time series plots, autocorrelation analysis, histogram and a normality plot to determine if the residuals are random. Show the graphs.
4. State the hypothesis that you are testing relative to the residuals and make a clear statement about whether you accept or reject it. Show the statistics that support your conclusion.
5. Calculate the RMSE and MAPE for the fit period.
SurtidoSales
666922
559962
441071
556265
529673
564722
638531
478899
917045
1515695
1834695
1874515
802365
567637
527987
684457
747335
658036
874679
793355
1819748
1600287
2177214
1759703
574064
521469
522118
716624
632066
633984
543636
596131
1606798
1774832
2102863
1819749
1072617
510005
579541
771350
590556