Megatronics manufactures components for use in small electronic products such as computers, CD players, and radios at plants in Belgium, Germany and France. The parts are transported by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexico, South America, the United States and the Pacific Rim. The company has to reserve space on ships months and sometimes years in advance. This requires an accurate forecasting model. Following are number of cubic feet of container space the company has used in each of the past 18 months. Develop a linear trend forecast, an exponential forecast (alpha=.40), and a 3 month weighted moving average (with most recent month weighted by 0.4, the next closest month weighted by 0.35 and the final month weighted by 0.25). Indicate which one you believe is the most accurate forecast model and the forecast for month 19 using MAD as the metric for accuracy. You need to complete the problem using manual calculations (not excel add-in or a different software)
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Month
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Space (1000s ft3)
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1
|
10.6
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|
2
|
12.7
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|
3
|
9.8
|
|
4
|
11.3
|
|
5
|
13.6
|
|
6
|
14.4
|
|
7
|
14.2
|
|
8
|
15.4
|
|
9
|
17.6
|
|
10
|
19.2
|
|
11
|
16.3
|
|
12
|
14.7
|
|
13
|
18.2
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|
14
|
19.6
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15
|
21.4
|
|
16
|
22.8
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|
17
|
20.6
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|
18
|
18.7
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