Question: Many people deal with uncertainty by assessing odds. For example, in horse racing different horses' odds of winning are assessed. Odds of "a to b for Outcome E" means that P(E) = a/(a + b) Odds of "c to d against Outcome E" means that P(E¯) = c/(c + d) For the outcomes in Problem, assess the odds for that outcome occurring. Convert your assessed odds to probabilities. Do they agree with the probability assessments that you made in Problem?
Problem: Assess your probability that the following outcomes will occur. Use the equivalent lottery method as discussed in the chapter. If possible, use a wheel of fortune with an adjustable win area, or a computer program that simulates such a wheel. What issues did you account for in making each assessment?
a. It will rain tomorrow in New York City.
b. You will have been offered a job before you graduate.
c. The women's track team at your college will win the NCAA championship this year.
d. The price of crude oil will be more than $200 per barrel on January 1, 2030.
e. The Dow Jones industrial average will go up tomorrow.
f. Any other uncertain outcome that interests you.