Long-term future values of a time series


Response to the following MCQs:

1. The overall model statistically adequate at a 0.05 level of significance for predicting sale price(y)?

a. no, since some other t-tests for the individual variables are not significant.
b. no since the standard deviation of the model is fairly large.
c. yes, since none of the B -estimates are equal to 0.
d. yes, since the p-value for the test is smaller than 0.05

2. For a moving average which is not true?

a. it can be used to smooth a series.
b. it gives equal weight to all values in the computation.
c. it is simpler than the method of exponential smoothing.
d. it gives greater weight to more recent data

3. I need to decide whether I should invest in a particular stock. I would like to invest if the price is likely to rise in the long run. I have data on the daily average price of this stock over the past 12 months. My best action is:

a. compute moving averages
b. perform exponential smoothing
c. estimate a least square trend model
d. compute the MAD statistic

4. A model that can be used to make predictions about long-term future values of a time series is:

a. linear trend
b. quadratic trend
c. exponential trend
d. all of the above

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Basic Statistics: Long-term future values of a time series
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