James Fromholtz is considering whether to invest in a newly formed investment fund. The fund’s investment objective is to acquire home mortgage securities at what it hopes will be bargain prices. The fund sponsor has suggested to James that the fund’s performance will hinge on how the national economy performs in the coming year. Specifically, he suggested the possible outcomes. State of Economy Probability Fund Returns Rapid Expansion recovery 5% 100% Modest growth 35% 30% Continued recession 55% 10% Falls into depression 5% -100% (this is negative 100).