James Fromholtz is considering whether to invest in a newly formed investment fun. The fund’s investment objective is to acquire home mortgage securities at what it hopes will be bargain prices. The fund sponsor has suggested to James that the fund’s performance will hinge on how the national economy performs in the coming year. Specifically, he suggested the following possible outcomes: State of Economy Probability Fund Returns Rapid expansion and recovery 5% 100% Modest growth 40% 30% Continued recession 50% 15% Falls into depression 5% -100%
A) Based on these potential outcomes, what is your estimate of the expected rate of return from this investment opportunity?
B) Calculate the standard deviation in the anticipated returns found in part a.
C) Would you be interested in making such an investment?
Note that you lose all your money in one year if the economy collapses into the worste state or you double your money if the economy enters into a rapid expansion.