1. If last period's forecast was 27 and the demand was 30, what was the forecast error? What would be the forecast for the next period using an exponential smoothing model with alpha 5 .5?
2. Use the Excel spreadsheet that accompanies this chapter to evaluate different fore- casting models using the ice cream sales data. Try the following parameters for the moving average and simple exponential smoothing models: n 5 1, 4, 8; alpha 5 0.1, 0.5, 0.9. Which parameters yield the best forecasting model for the periods under evaluation?