However if the referendum fails he believes he could sell


Bulloch County never has allowed liquor to be sold in restaurants. However, in three months, county residents are scheduled to vote on a referendum to allow liquor to be sold by the drink. Currently, polls indicate a 60% chance that the referendum will be passed by voters. Phil Jackson is a local real estate speculator who is eyeing a closed restaurant building that is scheduled to be sold at a sealed bid auction. Phil estimates that if he bids $ 1.25 million, there is a 25% chance he will obtain the property; if he bids $ 1.45 million, there is a 45% chance he will obtain the property; and if he bids $ 1.85 million, there is an 85% chance he will obtain the property. If he acquires the property and the referendum passes, Phil believes he could then sell the restaurant for $ 2.2 million. However, if the referendum fails, he believes he could sell the property for only $ 1.15 million. a. Develop a decision tree for this problem. b. What is the optimal decision according to the EMV criterion

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