How good is your intuition about probability? Look at the following situations and answer the questions without making any calculations. Rely on your intuition, and see what happens.
a A six-sided balanced die has four sides colored green and two colored red. Three sequences of tosses resulted in the following: RGRRR RGRRRG GRRRRR Order the sequences from most likely to least likely.
b If a balanced coin is tossed six times, which of die the following sequences is more likely, HTHTTH or HHHTTT? Which of the following is more likely, HTHTTH or HHHHTH? Activities like these were used by D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky to study how people reason probabilistically, as reported in their book Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 1982.