He bets 1 dollar each time timid strategy he bets each time


Smith is in jail and has 1 dollar; he can get out on bail if he has 8 dollars. A guard agrees to make a series of bets with him. If Smith bets dollars, he wins dollars with probability .4 and loses dollars with probability .6. Find the probability that he wins 8 dollars before losing all of his money if

(a) he bets 1 dollar each time (timid strategy).

(b) he bets, each time, as much as possible but not more than necessary to bring his fortune up to 8 dollars (bold strategy).

(c) Which strategy gives Smith the better chance of getting out of jail?

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Dissertation: He bets 1 dollar each time timid strategy he bets each time
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