Go to the Dismal Scientist Web site and download quarterly data for the broad index of the real dollar exchange rate over the past 30 years. Also download quarterly data over the same period for real net exports of goods and services. Assess the relationship between the exchange rate and real net exports from quarter to quarter. Does this relationship fit the assumption of the open economy model whereby an appreciation of the exchange rate lowers net exports? Comment on the possibility of a "J-curve" effect, that is, the situation where a depreciation of the exchange rate initially reduces net exports through valuation effects and only increases net exports over time as quantities adjust with a lag.
Go to the Dismal Scientist Web site and download monthly data over the past ten years for the U.S. consumer price index, both for the overall index and the core index that excludes food and energy prices. Compute the 12-month inflation rate (i.e., December to December, January to January, etc.) in order to smooth out month-to-month volatility in inflation. Compare the measure of inflation for the overall index with the measure for the core index. Explain how one might interpret periods where these measures are significantly different from each other as periods during which supply shocks occurred. Discuss how these shocks may have shifted the short-run aggregate supply curve and Phillips curve for the economy.