Before marketing new products nationally, companies often test them on samples of potential customers. Such tests have a known reliability. For a particular product type, a test will indicate success of the product 75% of the time if the product is indeed successful and 15% of the time when the product is not successful.
From past experience with similar products, a company knows that a new product has a 0.60 chance of success on the national market. If the test indicates that the product will be successful, what is the probability that it really will be successful?