Assignment
Question 1
Debonair's Pizza is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste of African pizza. One of its specialties is Namib Desert Prize Pizza. Martha Hamutenya, manager of Debonair's Pizza, must forecast weekly demand for these special pizzas so that she can order the correct amount of pizza shells weekly. Recently, the demand has been as follows:
Week Number of Polish Pnze Pizzas sold
September 1 50
September 8 65
September 15 52
September 22 60
September 29 70
October 6 60
Required
a) Forecast the demand for Namib, Desert Prize Pizza for September 22 -October 6. using the 3 period moving average method. Note: Round up all the forecasts to two decimal places.
b) Forecast the demand for September 22 - October 6, using weights of 0.5. 0.3. 0.2 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively.
c) Assume that the forecast for September 1 to be 55. Forecast the demand for September 8-October 6 using the exponential smoothing method with a = 0.3.
d) Now, forecast the demand for September 8-October 6 using the exponential smoothing method with a = 0.6. How do they compare to that in part (c)?
Question 2
The Windhoek Central hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance for its patients. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. 2019. The kilometers driven during the past 5 years are as follows.
|
Year
|
Kilometers
|
|
1
|
3000
|
|
2
|
4000
|
|
3
|
3400
|
|
4
|
3800
|
|
5
|
3700
|
a. Forecast the mileage for the next year using a 2 yew moving average
b Find the MAD based on the 2 year moving average forecast in part a (Hint: Yell will only have 3 years of matched data).
c Use a 2 year weighted moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year's mileage. The weight al .6 is the most recent year What MAD results tram using this approach to forecasting?
d Compute the forecast for the sixth year using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for the year is 3000 kilometers and α = .5
Question 3
Zimmerman Garages popular Tiguan's sales have grown steadily during the past 5 years as shown in the Table below. The sale manager had predicted it 2012 that 2013 sales would be 410 Tiguan cars.
| Year |
Sales
|
Forecast
|
| 2013 |
450
|
410
|
| 2014 |
496
|
|
| 2015 |
518
|
|
| 2016 |
563
|
|
| 2017 |
584
|
|
| 2018 |
7
|
|
a Using an exponential smoothing weight of α = 3=.3, develop forecasts for 2014 through 2018.
b. Using the trend projection method, develop a forecast for the sales of the sales VW Tiguan through 2018.
c. Determine the MAD, MAPE using the same data.
Question 4
The following table gives the map coordinates and the shipping loads for a set of cities that we wish to connect through a central hub in Namibia.
|
City
|
Map coordinate (x,y)
|
shipping load
|
|
Atandis
|
(5,10)
|
5
|
|
Gobabis
|
(6,8)
|
10
|
|
Katie a
|
(4,9)
|
15
|
|
Windhoek
|
(9,5)
|
5
|
|
Stakopmund
|
(1,9)
|
15
|
|
Walvis Bay
|
(3,2)
|
10
|
|
Oncgivectra
|
(2,6)
|
5
|
a. Near which map coordinates should the hub be located
b. if the shipments from Aside city triple, how does this change the coordinates