Consider the following data for a children's toy:
Month J F M A M J J A S O
Demand 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 25 45 59 66
a) Forcast November demand using a three-month moving average.
b) Forecast November demand using exponential smoothing and a smoothing constant of 0.3.
c) Forecast November demand using linear regression
d) Plot the data and the linear trend from c. What appears to be happening? Can you intuitively forecast the demand in November?