Critical Thinking Activity
This critical thinking activity integrates project management (chapter 10) with knowledge of variation & standard deviation (chapter 3).
For your convenience, here is a link to the MS Word file that contains the same information as it appears: Critical thinking Activity for Project Management
You must manage a project with the following activity times (in days):
|
Activity
|
Optimistic Time
|
Most Likely Time
|
Pessimistic Time
|
Predecessor Activity
|
|
A
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
--
|
|
B
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
A
|
|
C
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
B
|
|
D
|
1
|
6
|
11
|
A
|
|
E
|
7
|
9
|
11
|
C
|
|
F
|
20
|
29
|
38
|
D
|
|
G
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
E
|
|
H
|
7
|
10
|
13
|
G, F
|
Complete the following tasks
1. Draw the project network
2. Compute the ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for all activities
3. Identify the critical paths. There are TWO!
4. Report the expected completion time and standard deviation for each path.
5. Decide which standard deviation must be used for estimating probability of completion times. Justify your decision.
6. Use the mean and standard deviation to estimate the probability that the project can be finished within 55 days of when it is started.
7. Post a message to this week's DB and include:a) activities, duration, and standard deviation for each critical path,b)justification for your decision on which standard deviation to use (#5 above),c) your calculation and final answer to the probability question.