Given the time series in given Exercise, and using exponential smoothing with α = 0.7, what would have been the forecast for 2001?
Exercise
Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing the number of active U.S. military personnel from 1994 through 2000. What is the trend estimate for 2010?
|
Year
|
Military Personnel (millions)
|
|
1994
|
1.61
|
|
1995
|
1.52
|
|
1996
|
1.47
|
|
1997
|
1.44
|
|
1998
|
1.41
|
|
1999
|
1.38
|
|
2000
|
1.37
|