Exponentially smoothed forecast of calls


Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida's 911 systems for the past 24 weeks are as follows:

1177_Calls To Winter Park.png

(a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use ? = 0.1. What is the forecast for the 25th week?

(b) Reforecast each period using ? = 0.6.

(c) Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast?

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