Explain how a greek default could lead to a banking crisis


International Economics Assignment

Part I: Short answer.

1. Complete the BOP worksheet. Which item(s) are particularly problematic for this country?

Balance of Payments Statement                                                                    

Current Account                                                                
Exports of goods                                                                 1000
Imports of goods                                                                 800
Balance on Goods                                                                             
Exports of Services                                                                             400

Imports of Services                                                                             200
Balance on Services                                                                          
Trade Balance                                                                   
Investment Income Received                                                                           50
Investment Income Paid                                                                   1000
Balance                                                               
Transfers                                                                             
Foreign Aid Received                                                                          100
Balance                                                               
Balance on Current Account                                                                          
Capital and Financial Account                                                                       
Net Capital Transfers                                                                         0
Net Purchases of Domestic Financial Assets                                                                  300
Net Purchases of Foreign Financial Assets                                                                     500
Foreign Direct Investment                                                                 50
Balance on Capital and Financial Account w/0 CB                                                                  
Balance Prior to Central Bank Transactions                                                               
Central Bank Transactions                                                                             
Purchases of foreign exchange                                                                       
Sales of foreign exchange                                                                
Total Balance                                                                     

2. Show the likely impact of the current BOP situation on the exchange rate in the absence of central bank transactions (you may use either the market for home currency or the market for foreign exchange but you must be clear and consistent in your answer).

3. Explain how a devaluation might under some circumstances correct a BOP deficit? Why would that be unlikely to occur given this particular balance sheet?

4. Assuming this country wishes to maintain a fixed exchange rate, show the impact of central bank transactions in the market for foreign exchange and provide a brief explanation for your graph.

5. Suppose the Central Bank runs out of foreign exchange. Show what will happen in the foreign exchange market and provide a brief explanation of your graph.

Part 2: Short Essay around 2 pages

6. A country wishes to maintain parity in nominal terms for its currency in exchange for gold bullion. However, its inflation rate is above that of the rest of the world. Will this country most likely have a current account deficit or surplus? Explain. Using the quantity theory of money and the AD-AS diagram, show and explain how this country must adjust its current account situation and the likely impact of this adjustment on the domestic price level, level of output and employment. What would be the advantage of an international lender of last resort? What might be a disadvantage?

Part 3: A little bit longer essay around 3 pages.

7. Use a book to explain the following:

a. Why does the "troika" believe that Greece's problems should be resolved by requiring Greece to run a primary fiscal surplus? In your answer, be sure to explain what the "troika" is and how they are able to require this of Greece.

b. Explain how the "troika" believes these policies will lead to long run improvement in Greece's ability to pay and what the impact of these policies has been thus far.

c. Explain how a Greek default could lead to a banking crisis and how this crisis could spread to all of Europe and even the world.

d. In your capacity as a researcher for the Greek Finance Ministry, help prepare a report to be presented to the Troika as to why this program is actually unlikely to improve the situation.

e. Should Greece leave the Eurozone? Explain.

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International Economics: Explain how a greek default could lead to a banking crisis
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