Exit valuation and the probability of success


BV is considering a $5M Series A investment in Newco. EBV proposes to structure the investment as 6M shares of convertible preferred stock. The employees of Newco have claims on 10M shares common stock.Thus, following the Series A investment, Newco will have 10M common shares outstanding and would have 16M shares outstanding on conversion of the CP. EBV estimates a 25% probability for a successful exit, with an expected time in 5 years and an exit valuation of $500M. The $100M EBV funds has annual fees of 2% for each of its 10 years and earns 20% carried interest on all profits. How sensitive is this recommendation to different assumptions about the exit valuation and the probability of success?

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Accounting Basics: Exit valuation and the probability of success
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