Problem
Develop a hypothetical scenario in which you and your team members are going to examine the likelihood that someone or something will be observed in one of two states at any point in time. As you develop your scenario, carefully address all of the following:
I. In a brief narrative introducing your scenario, clearly identify two states for your scenario. Be sure to describe what the states are and define them as State A versus State B.
II. Using the illustration provided as a guide, clearly present the probabilities associated with each of the four possible transitions, by labeling each of the transitions (indicated by the arrows) with an appropriate value for the probability they will occur (i.e., these are your own hypothetical estimates). Be sure these values adhere to probability norms regarding what range they may fall within and how they combine or relate with their paired probability. Share your complete state-transition diagram with a visual.
III. Propose an initial distribution vector, v, which gives a hypothetical estimate of what proportion is initially observed in State A and State B. This should be reported as a 2 × 1 matrix and adhere to probability norms.