Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida's 911 system, for the past 24 weeks are as follows: (Attached Excel Data)
(a) evaluate the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Suppose an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use smoothing constant for forecasts=0.1 evaluate is the forecast for the 25th week?
(b) Reforecast each period using smoothing constant for forecasts= 0.6
(c) Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant gives a superior forecast?
Week Calls Week Calls Week Calls
1 50 9 35 17 55
2 35 10 20 18 40
3 25 11 15 19 35
4 40 12 40 20 60
5 45 13 55 21 75
6 35 14 35 22 50
7 20 16 25 23 40
8 30 16 55 24 65