1. Distinguish risk and uncertainty. Distinguish a priori and statistical probabilities.
2. Distinguish sensitivity and simulation analyses. Give an example for each.
3. Please define the following terms:
variance
standard deviation
expected value
normal distribution
standard normal transformation (to get standardized value Z)
4. The chance to win the Jackpot in Powerball lottery is one over 150 million. One hot summer day of 2003, the Jackpot prize went up to $300 million. Professor Han bought three tickets (each ticket costs one dollar as you may know).
What is the expected value of each ticket?
Did Professor Han make a rational decision or what?