At the beginning of 2001, Merck's CFO Judy Lewent predicted that Vioxx sales for the year would be between $3 and $3.5 billion. In June she qualified her prediction to say that although Vioxx sales would be closer to the lower end of the prediction range, four of their top five drugs would achieve the upper end of their prediction ranges. One month later, she stated that Merck's research pipeline was as productive as any other time in the firm's history. However, in August the Journal of the American Medical Association published a study linking Vioxx to an increased risk of heart attack and stroke. Immediately thereafter, sales of Vioxx began to slow. In 2001 Vioxx sales were $2.3 billion. In 2002 Vioxx sales were $2.5 billion.
In light of the graph of return on equity displayed in exhibit 1-4, discuss whether the events just described reflect any behavioral biases.