Russia-Ukraine: How long will truce hold up?
In our second discussion forum of the semester, I asked What will Russia's next move be in Ukraine. Over the past month, a lot has happened in Ukraine since then. Ukraine and the Russian-backed rebels reached a ceasfire in Minsk, Belarus. Despite the truce, fighting still rages on in some parts of Eastern Ukraine.
In this discussion, you are tasked with going back to your analysis from our discussion in Week 3 and see whether it needs to change or will it remain the same. Use the challenge analysis techniques you learn in this module to reevaluate your previous analysis.
After you critique your own analysis, please reply to the critique of at least one other classmate. In your critiques, you should state whether your initial analysis still holds. You might have to slightly change your analysis or completely change it. On the other hand, it might remain the same.
Discuss any issues that you might have missed when you first posted. Are there any new developments you did not forsee? If not, why not? On the other hand, if you were correct, why factors helped your analysis.