1. Daily sales volume for Nilgiris Convenience Store is shown in the following table:
|
DAY
|
SALES ($)
|
DAY
|
SALES ($)
|
|
1
|
622
|
6
|
656
|
|
2
|
418
|
7
|
689
|
|
3
|
608
|
8
|
675
|
|
4
|
752
|
9
|
706
|
|
5
|
588
|
10
|
725
|
Develop two-day, three-day, and four-day moving averages to forecast the sales for each day. What is the forecast for day 11 in each case?
2. Consider the data given in Problem 15 for Nilgiris Convenience Store.
(a) If the store wants to use exponential smoothing to forecast the sales volume, what is the optimal value of a that would minimize MAPE? What is the forecast for day 11 using this model?
(b) If the store wants to use linear trend analysis to forecast the sales volume, what is the linear equation that best fits the data? What is the forecast for day 11 using this model?
(c) Which of the methods analyzed here and in Problem 15 would you use? Explain your answer.