Assignment:
Problem:
An advertising project manager has developed a program for a new advertising campaign. In addition, the manager has gathered the time information for each activity, as shown in the table below.
a. Calculate the expected activity times (round to nearest integer).
b. What is the total project length? Make sure you fully label all nodes in the network.
c. Identify the critical path. What are the alternative paths and how much slack time is associated with each feeder path?
d. Gven the activity variances, what is the likelihood of the project finishing BY week 24?
f. Suppose you wanted to have a 99% confidence in the project finishing on time. How many additional weeks would your project team need to negotiate for in order to gain this 99% likelihood?
|
Activity
|
Optimistic
|
most likely
|
Pessimistic
|
Immediate Precedessor(s)
|
|
A
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
_
|
|
B
|
2
|
6
|
10
|
_
|
|
C
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
B
|
|
D
|
6
|
13
|
14
|
A
|
|
E
|
4
|
6
|
14
|
A, C
|
|
F
|
6
|
8
|
16
|
B
|
|
G
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
D, E, F
|
2. Use the following information to determine the probability of this project finishing within 34 weeks of its scheduled completion date. Assume activities A - B - D - F - G are the project's critical path.
|
Activity
|
Optimistic
|
Likely
|
Pessimistic
|
Expected Time
|
Variance
|
|
A
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
|
|
|
B
|
3
|
5
|
9
|
|
|
|
C
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|
|
|
D
|
3
|
7
|
15
|
|
|
|
E
|
5
|
10
|
16
|
|
|
|
F
|
3
|
6
|
15
|
|
|
|
G
|
4
|
7
|
12
|
|
|
a. Calculate the expected durations for each activity
b. Calculate individual task variances and overall project variance
c. The company must file a permit request with the local government within a narrow time frame after the project is expected to be completed. What is the likelihood that the project will be finished by week 34?
d. If we wanted to be 95% confident of on-time delivery of the project, how much additional time will we need to add to the project's expected delivery time?