Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. Since the legendary Phil Flamm was hired as its head coach in 2009 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number 1 ranking), attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Flamm’s arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time!
The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years.
2012 2013 2014 Game Attendance Opponent Attendance Opponent Attendance Opponent 1 34,200 Rice 36,100 Miami 35,900 USC 2a 39,800 Texas 40,200 Nebraska 46,500 Texas Tech 3 38,200 Duke 39,100 Ohio State 43,100 Alaska 4b 26,900 Arkansas 25,300 Nevada 27,900 Arizona 5 35,100 TCU 36,200 Boise State 39,200 Baylor
2015 2016 2017 Game Attendance Opponent Attendance Opponent Attendance Opponent 1 41,900 Arkansas 42,500 Indiana 46,900 LSU 2a 46,100 Missouri 48,200 North Texas 50,100 Texas
3 43,900 Florida 44,200
Texas A&M
45,900
South Florida
4b 30,100 Central Florida
33,900 Southern 36,300 Montana
5 40,500 LSU 47,800 Oklahoma 49,900
Arizona State
a Homecoming games. b During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.
One of Flamm’s demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Flamm had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.
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SWU’s president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would “max out.” The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2018 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.
Questions:
(a) Develop a forecasting model using regression analysis, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2019.