Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a=.4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on visual inspection which forecast is better.
4.2 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7