Assignment
Problem 1:
Observations of the demand for a spare part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year 2012 were
|
Month
|
Demand
|
Month
|
Demand
|
|
January
|
95
|
July
|
234
|
|
February
|
62
|
August
|
284
|
|
March
|
135
|
September
|
221
|
|
April
|
211
|
October
|
281
|
|
May
|
199
|
November
|
192
|
|
June
|
276
|
December
|
302
|
a. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for the demand for January 2013 using 3-, 6-, and 12-month moving averages.
b. Using a four-month moving average, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July through December 2012.
c. Compute MAD, MSE, MAPE for the forecasts obtained in b.
Problem 2:
Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over a ten-week period have been 13, 11, 26, 21, 32, 13, 21, 22, 30, and 26.
a. Suppose that five-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 6 through 10.
b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α =
0.15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 6 through 10 (start the forecasting process from week 1).
c. Based on the MAD, which forecast method is better?
Problem 3:
The sales of a tablet computer in a popular electronic store during the calendar year 2012 were
|
Month
|
Demand
|
Month
|
Demand
|
|
January
|
103
|
July
|
199
|
|
February
|
119
|
August
|
208
|
|
March
|
131
|
September
|
221
|
|
April
|
149
|
October
|
237
|
|
May
|
172
|
November
|
252
|
|
June
|
184
|
December
|
268
|
a. Using 3-month simple moving average and exponential smoothing (with α = 0.10 and 0.20), determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January 2013.
b. Using 3-month double moving average (using base level and trend), determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January 2013.
c. Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the above forecasts.
d. Based on the MAPE, which forecast method is the best?
Problem 4:
Compile a list of major system life-cycle activities. For each activity on the list, try to find the related supply chain activities. Present your finding in a table with the system life-cycle stage in the first column, system life-cycle activities in the second column and the related supply chain activities in the third column.
The response should include a reference list. Double-space, using Times New Roman 12 pnt font, one-inch margins, and APA style of writing and citations.