Discuss the below:
Q1. The Whistle Stop cafe in wheems Georgia. is well known for its popular homemade ice cream. made in a small plant in back of the cafe. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Mame, to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the cafe want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production operation and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the cafe. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters
Year Quarter Ice Cream Sales
203 1 350
2 510
3 750
4 420
2004 5 370
6 480
7 860
8 500
2005 9 450
10 550
11 820
12 570
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model α= .50 and β=0.50 to forecast demand and assess its accuaracy using cumulative error (E) and average error(E‾). Does there appear to be any bias in the forecast
Q2. For the demand data in Q1, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for 2006. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for 2006.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11or the seasonally adjusted forecast?
Q3. RAP Computer assembles personal computes from genetic pans it purchases at a discoumand it sells the units via phone orders it receivesf rom 40 to men responding to the company's ads in trade journals. The business has developed an exponential smoothing forecast model to forecast future computer demand. Actual demand for the company's computers for the past II months as well as a lowest set shown in the following tablet
Month Demand Forecast
Mar 120 -
Apr 110 120.0
May 150 116.0
June 130 129.6
July 160 129.7
Aug 165 141.8
Sep 140 151.1
Oct 155 146.7
Nov - 150.0
a. Using a measure of forecast accuracy of your choice ascertain whether the forecast appears to be accurate.
b. Determine whether a 3month moving average would provide a better forecast.