1.Why does the CAPM imply that investors should trade very rarely?
2.Your brother Joe is a surgeon who suffers badly from the overconfidence bias. He loves to trade stocks and believes his predictions with 100% confidence. In fact, he is uninformed like most investors. Rumors are that Vital Signs (a startup that makes warning labels in the medical industry) will receive a takeover offer at $20 per share. Absent the takeover offer, the stock will trade at $15 per share. The uncertainty will be resolved in the next few hours. Your brother believes that the takeover will occur with certainty and has instructed his broker to buy the stock at any price less than $20. In fact, the true probability of a takeover is 50%, but a few people are informed and know whether the takeover will actually occur. They also have submitted orders. Nobody else is trading in the stock.
a. Describe what will happen to the market price once these orders are submitted if in fact the takeover will occur in a few hours. What will your brother’s profits be: positive, negative or zero?
b. What range of possible prices could result once these orders are submitted if the takeover will not occur. What will your brother’s profits be: positive, negative or zero?
c. What are your brother’s expected profits?
3.To put the turnover of Figure 13.3 into perspective, let’s do a back of the envelope calculation of what an investor’s average turnover per stock would be were he to follow a policy of investing in the S&P 500 portfolio. Because the portfolio is value weighted, the trading would be required when Standard and Poor’s changes the constituent stocks. (Let’s ignore additional, but less important reasons like new share issuances and repurchases.) Assuming they change 23 stocks a year (the historical average since 1962) what would you estimate the investor’s per stock share turnover to be? Assume that the average total number of shares outstanding for the stocks that are added or deleted from the index is the same as the average number of shares outstanding for S&P 500 stocks.
4.How does the disposition effect impact investors’ tax obligations?