Select a risk that one might encounter on a project.
Describe that risk.
Then, describe how you might mitigate that risk using either simulation (Crystal Ball) or calculation.
Perform the simulation or calculations to provide 90% confidence that the risk will not occur.
Describe any problems you encountered in completing this topic.
Attach your calculations or simulation.
Examples:
You might have a risk that the duration of a task (develop the user interface) on the critical path has been underestimated so you might ask your technical expert for the optimistic and pessimistic durations and calculate T-E. You would then use Crystal Ball to determine the duration that would represent a 90% confidence that the task could be accomplished in that time.
You might have a concern that all of the activities on your critical path have been under-estimated, so you would calculate µ and ? and use the Z table to determine the project duration that gives you a 90% probability of completing within that time frame. You would then add the difference between your original duration and the 90% duration as the schedule reserve. Note: if you choose this example, use at least three, but no more than five, tasks in your calculations.