Problem
A recently published analysis examined 10 studies that measured optimism and pessimism by asking participants about their level of agreement with statements like "In uncertain times, I usually expect the best," or "I rarely expect good things to happen to me". Optimistic people tend to expect that they will encounter favorable outcomes, whereas less optimistic people tend to expect that they will encounter unfavorable outcomes. These studies also measured other variables on participants, including factors related to heart disease. The analysis found that compared with pessimists, people with the most optimistic outlook had a 35 % lower risk for cardiovascular events (e.g., heart attacks). The studies, on average, observed people over a 14-year period and compared the rate of cardiovascular events between those classified as optimists versus pessimists.
Task
1. A popular newspaper reports on the analysis with the headline "Thinking Positively Improves Cardiovascular Health". Write a short response to the editor explaining clearly why the headline is potentially misleading.
2. Briefly describe a plausible study design that has the potential to demonstrate the effect of thinking positively on cardiovascular health.
3. Suppose someone who is very optimistic reads about the analysis and concludes that the findings suggest he has a 35 % lower risk for cardiovascular events than his friend who is extremely pessimistic. Explain why this is not necessarily the case.