Davison Construction Company is building a luxury lakefront home in the Finger Lakes region of New York. Coordination of the architect and subcontractors will require a major effort to meet the 44-week (approximately 10-month) completion date requested by the owner. The Davison project manager prepared the following project network
Estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in weeks) for the activ- ities are as follows:
|
Activity
A
|
Optimistic
4
|
Most Probable
8
|
Pessimistic
12
|
|
B
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
C
|
6
|
12
|
18
|
|
D
|
3
|
5
|
7
|
|
E
|
6
|
9
|
18
|
|
F
|
5
|
8
|
17
|
|
G
|
10
|
15
|
20
|
|
H
|
5
|
6
|
13
|
a. Find the critical path.
b. What is the expected project completion time?
c. What is the probability the project can be completed in the 44 weeks as requested by the owner?
d. What is the probability the building project could run more than 3 months late? Use 57 weeks for this calculation.
e. What should the construction company tell the owner?