Jane White has recorded the following sales figures for last year for her business: January, $35,645; February, $35,456; March, $31,270; April, $32,129; May, $34,456; June, $35,256; July, $36,218; August, $35,456; September, $34,250; October, $32,156; November, $30,125; and December, $32,275.
She wants to select from one of three models: a three-month moving average, a weighted moving average (she believes that the weights should be 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5), and an exponential smoothing average in which she uses an alpha of 0.2 and an assumed forecast for January of year one of $35,000.
a. Construct a table that shows each of these forecasts for the current year, and provide the forecast for January of year two.
b. Using the available data and your forecasts, which model would you suggest that Jane use for her business?