Part 1: Conduct a discounted cash flow calculation to determine the NPV of the following project, assuming a required rate of return of 0.2. The project will cost $75,000 but will result in cash inflows of $20,000, $30,000, and $50,000 in each of the next four years.
Part 2: In the previous problem, assume that the inflows are uncertain but normally distributed with standard deviations of $1000, $1500, $2000, and $3500, respectively. Find the mean forecast NPV using "Crystal Ball". What is the probability the actual NPV will be positive?